In the Ecosystem Modeling research group, we pursue the understanding of the processes underlying the origin, maintenance and spatiotemporal dynamics of biodiversity across scales, from local to global, and across levels of ecological organization, from individuals, over populations, species, communities, and metacommunities up to biomes. The working group applies a range of methods, including field work, data analyses and macroecology, but focuses on mechanistic simulation modeling.
The developed mechanistic models for virtual life can be used for theory testing, improving empirical sampling designs, understanding complex process interactions, and predicting biodiversity response to drivers and environmental change scenarios.
submitted[ to top ]
- The geography of the Anthropocene differs between the land and the sea. (submitted).
- Modeling the long-term dynamics of tropical forests: from leaf traits to whole-tree growth patterns. in Ecological Monographs (submitted).
- Mechanisms of extinction debt across levels of ecological organization. (submitted).
- Macroecology in the age of big data – where to go from here? (submitted).
- Integrating stochasticity into community ecology. (submitted).
- Disentangling the drivers of local species richness using probabilistic species pools. (submitted).
- A minimal model for the latitudinal diversity gradient suggests a dominant role for ecological limits. (submitted).
accepted[ to top ]
- Species richness change across spatial scales. in Oikos (accepted).
- Interactions between ecological, evolutionary, and environmental processes unveil complex dynamics of insular plant diversity. in Journal of Biogeography (accepted).
- Assessing predicted isolation effects from the general dynamic model of island biogeography with an eco-evolutionary model for plants. in Journal of Biogeography (accepted).
2019[ to top ]
- The dimensionality of stability depends on disturbance type. in Ecology Letters (2019). (early view)
2018[ to top ]
- The latitudinal diversity gradient - novel understanding through mechanistic eco-evolutionary models. in Trends in Ecology & Evolution (2018).
- Spatial scaling of extinction rates: theory and data reveal non-linearity, and a major upscaling and downscaling challenge. in Global Ecology and Biogeography (2018). 27 2-13.
- Integrating community assembly and biodiversity reveals new dimensions of ecosystem functions: the Community Assembly and the Functioning of Ecosystems (CAFE) approach. in Ecology Letters (2018). 21 167–180.
2017[ to top ]
- Oceanic island biogeography through the lens of the general dynamic model: assessment and prospect. in Biological Reviews (2017). 92 830-853.
- Mechanistic models in macroecology and biogeography: state-of-art and prospects. in Ecography (2017). 40(267-280)
- Karyotype diversity and genome size variation in Neotropical Maxillariinae orchids. in Plant Biology (2017). 19 298-308.
- Interactions between ecological, evolutionary, and environmental processes unveil complex dynamics of island biodiversity. in bioRxiv (2017). (099978)
- Flagship umbrella species needed for conservation of overlooked biodiversity. in Conservation Biology (2017). 31 481-485.
- Effects of time and isolation on plant diversity: testing island biogeography theory with an eco-evolutionary model. in bioRxiv (2017). (100289)
- Biodiversity dynamics on islands: explicitly accounting for causality in mechanistic models. in Diversity (2017). 9(30)
- Biodiversity dynamics on islands: explicitly accounting for causality in mechanistic models. in Diversity (2017). 9(3)
2016[ to top ]
- Late Quaternary climate change shapes island biodiversity. in Nature (2016). 532(7597) 99--102.
- Functional leaf traits of vascular epiphytes: vertical trends within the forest, intra- and interspecific trait variability, and taxonomic signals. in Functional Ecology (2016). 30 188-198.
- Delineating probabilistic species pools in ecology and biogeography. in Global Ecology and Biogeography (2016). 25 489-501.
- Benchmarking novel approaches for modelling species range dynamics. in Global Change Biology (2016). 22(8) 2651--2664.
2015[ to top ]
- Chromosomal evolution in Pleurothallidinae (Orchidaceae: Epidendroideae) with emphasis on the genus Acianthera: chromosome numbers and heterochromatin. in Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society (2015). 178 102-120.
- Branchfall as a demographic filter for epiphyte communities: Lessons from a forest floor-based sampling. in PloS one (2015). 10 e0128019.
2014[ to top ]
- Biogeographic, climatic and spatial drivers differentially affect α-, β- and γ-diversities on oceanic archipelagos. in Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B: Biological Sciences (2014). 281(1784)
2013[ to top ]
- Process, correlation and parameter fitting in species distribution models: a response to Kriticos et al. 2012. in Journal of Biogeography (2013). 40 611-613.
- Impacts of past habitat loss and future climate change on the range dynamics of South African Proteaceae. in Diversity and Distributions (2013). 19(4) 363--376.
2012[ to top ]
- Linking ecological niche, community ecology and biogeography: insights from a mechanistic niche model. in Journal of Biogeography (2012). 39(12) 2212--2224.
- How to understand species’ niches and range dynamics: a demographic research agenda for biogeography. in Journal of Biogeography (2012). 39(12) 2146--2162.
- Correlation and process in species distribution models: bridging a dichotomy. in Journal of Biogeography (2012). 39(12) 2119--2131.
2011[ to top ]
- Effects of Harvesting Flowers from Shrubs on the Persistence and Abundance of Wild Shrub Populations at Multiple Spatial Extents. in Conservation Biology (2011). 25(1) 73--84.
2010[ to top ]
- The virtual ecologist approach: simulating data and observers. in Oikos (2010). 119(4) 622--635.
- Keeping the Cape Lowland archipelago afloat. (2010). (Vol. Biodiversity in southern Africa. Volume 3: Implications for landuse and management) 151-179.
- Estimating demographic models for the range dynamics of plant species. in Global Ecology and Biogeography (2010). 19(1) 85--97.
2008[ to top ]
- Molecular phylogeny of the neotropical genus Christensonella (Orchidaceae, Maxillariinae): species delimitations and insights into chromosome evolution. in Annals of Botany (2008). 102(491-507)
2006[ to top ]
- Heterochromatin diversity and its co-localization with 5S and 45S rDNA sites in chromosomes of four Maxillaria species (Orchidaceae). in Genetics and Molecular Biology (2006). 29 659 - 664.
- Atlantic forest fragments in Pernambuco and Alagoas and theirs bromeliads: distribution, composition, richness and conservation. (2006). (Vol. Fragments of the Atlantic Forest of Northeast Brazil: Biodiversity, Conservation and the Bromeliads) 101-131.
2003[ to top ]
- Dieta de coruja murucututu (Pulsatrix perspicillata perspicillata Lathan, 1790) no Campus de UFRPE, Recife, PE. (2003). (Vol. Volume III) 273-274.