piwik-script

Center for Computational and Theoretical Biology

Ecosystem Modeling (move to U of Birmingham)


Ecosystem Modeling Research

In the Ecosystem Modeling research group, we pursue the understanding of the processes underlying the origin, maintenance and spatiotemporal dynamics of biodiversity across scales, from local to global, and across levels of ecological organization, from individuals, over populations, species, communities, and metacommunities up to biomes. The working group applies a range of methods, including field work, data analyses and macroecology, but focuses on mechanistic simulation modeling.

The developed mechanistic models for virtual life can be used for theory testing, improving empirical sampling designs, understanding complex process interactions, and predicting biodiversity response to drivers and environmental change scenarios.

 

The working group is in transition phase, as the group leader is now associate professor at the University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK (the position at University of Würzburg was non-tenure track).


External collaborators

The EcoMods collaborate with:

Dr. Sonia Kéfi (CNRS, Montpellier, France)

Dr. Jan Engler (TU Dresden, Germany)

Dr. Viktoriia Radchuk  (Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research, Berlin, Germany)

MSc. André Pinto da Silva (Uppsala University, Sweden)

Prof. Dr. Ana Paula de Moraes (Federal University of ABC, Brazil)

The BLIZ  consortium (one of the Bayklif  funded consortia)

The sELDIG  working group (started as sDiv-funded working group, still ongoing as a virtual group)

 


Publications

submitted[ to top ]
  • Insights into the relationship between hydraulic safety, hydraulic efficiency and tree structural complexity from terrestrial laser scanning and fractal analysis Dorji, Yonten; Isasa, Emilie; Sarmento Cabral, Juliano; Schuldt, Bernhard; Annighöfer, Peter; Seidel, Dominik (submitted).
2022[ to top ]
  • The road to integrate climate change effects on land-use change in regional biodiversity models Sarmento Cabral, Juliano; Mendoza-Ponce, Alma; da Silva, André Pinto; Oberpriller, Johannes; Mimet, Anne; Kieslinger, Julia; Berger, Thomas; Blechschmidt, Jana; Brönner, Maximilian; Classen, Alice; Fallert, Stefan; Hartig, Florian; Hof, Christian; Hoffmann, Markus; Knoke, Thomas; Krause, Andreas; Lewerentz, Anne; Pohle, Perdita; Raeder, Uta; Rammig, Anja; Redlich, Sarah; Rubanschi, Sven; Stetter, Christian; Weisser, Wolfgang; Vedder, Daniel; Verburg, Peter H.; Zurell, Damaris in Authorea (2022). Preprint
  • Scaling up our understanding of tipping points Kéfi, Sonia; Saade, Camille; Berlow, Eric; Cabral, Juliano S. Cabral; Fronhofer, Emanuel in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B (2022). 377 20210386.
  • Putting vascular epiphytes on the traits map Hietz, Peter; Wagner, Katrin; Nunes Ramos, Flavio; Cabral, Juliano; Agudelo, Claudia; Benavides, Ana Maria; Cach-Pérez, Manuel Jesús; Cardelús, Catherine; Chilpa Galván, Nahlleli; Costa, Lucas; de Paula Oliveira, Rodolfo; Einzmann, Helena; Farias, Rafael; Guzmán Jacob, Valeria; Kattge, Jens; Kessler, Michael; Kirby, Catherine; Kreft, Holger; Kromer, Thorsten; Males, Jamie; Monsalve Correa, Samuel; Moreno-Chacón, Maria; Petter, Gunnar; Reyes-Garcia, Casandra; Saldana, Alfredo; Schellenberger Costa, David; Taylor, Amanda; Velázquez Rosas, Noé; Wanek, Wolfgang; Woods, Carrie; Zotz, Gerhard in Journal of Ecology (2022). 110 340–358.
  • Potential change in the future spatial distribution of submerged macrophyte species and species richness: the role of today’s lake type and strength of compounded environmental change Lewerentz, Anne; Hoffmann, Markus; Hovestadt, Thomas; Raeder, Uta; Sarmento Cabral, Juliano in Preprint (2022).
  • New proposal of epiphytic Bromeliaceae functional groups to include nebulophytes and shallow tanks Reyes-García, Casandra; Pereira-Zaldívar, Narcy Anai; Espadas-Manrique, Celene; Tamayo-Chim, Manuela; Chilpa-Galván, Nahlleli Civi; Cach-Pérez, Manuel Jesús; Ramírez-Medina, Marypaz; Benavides, Ana María; Hietz, Peter; Zotz, Gerhard; Andrade, José Luis; Cardelús, Catherine; Oliveiras, Rodolfo De Paula; Einzmann, Helena J.R.; Guzmán Jacob, Valeria; Krömer, Thorsten; Pinzón, Juan Pablo; Sarmento Cabral, Juliano; Wanek, Wolfgang; Woods, Carrie in Plants (2022). accepted.
  • Hybridisation may aid evolutionary rescue of an endangered east african passerine Vedder, Daniel; Lens, Luc; Pellikka, Petri; Adhikari, Hari; Heiskanen, Janne; Engler, Jan; Sarmento Cabral, Juliano in Evolutionary Applications (2022). 15 1177–1188.
  • Are chromosome number and genome size associated with habit and environmental niche variables? Insights from the Neotropical orchids Moraes, Ana Paula; Engel, Thaissa; Forni-Martins, Eliana; Felix, Leonardo; Cabral, Juliano in Annals of Botany (2022). 130 11–25.
  • Addressing controversies in the xylem embolism resistance – vessel diameter relationship Isasa, Emilie; Link, Roman; Jansen, Steven; Tezeh, Fon; Kaack, Lucian; Sarmento Cabral, Juliano; Schuldt, Bernhard in New Phytologist (2022). accepted
  • A simple kit to use computational notebooks for more openness, reproducibility, and productivity in research Figueiredo, Ludmilla; Scherer, Cédric; Cabral, Juliano Sarmento in PLOS Computational Biology (2022). 18 e1010356.
2021[ to top ]
  • Temporal environmental variation imposes differential selection on both genomic and ecological traits Leidinger, Ludwig; Vedder, Daniel; Cabral, Juliano S. in Oikos (2021). 130 1100–1115.
  • Propagule pressure and an invasion syndrome determine invasion success in a plant community model Vedder, Daniel; Leidinger, Ludwig; Sarmento Cabral, Juliano in Ecology and Evolution (2021). 11 17106–17116.
  • Niche evolution reveals disparate signatures of speciation in the ‘great speciator‘ (White-eyes, Aves: genus Zosterops) Engler, Jan O.; Lawrie, Yvonne; Cabral, Juliano S.; Lens, Luc in Journal of Biogeography (2021). 48 1981–1993.
  • Modeling the long-term dynamics of tropical forests: from leaf traits to whole-tree growth patterns Petter, Gunnar; Kreft, Holger; Ong, Yongzhi; Zotz, Gerhard; Sarmento, Juliano in Ecological Modelling (2021). 460 109735.
  • gen3sis: The GENeral Engine for Eco-Evolutionary SImulationS on the origins of biodiversity Hagen, Oskar; Flück, Benjamin; Fopp, Fabian; Cabral, Juliano S.; Hartig, Florian; Pontarp, Mikael; Rangel, Thiago F.; Pellissier, Loïc in Plos Biology (2021). 19 e3001340.
  • Evolutionary rescue and community re-assembly contribute to the waiving of extinction debts Figueiredo, Ludmilla; Leidinger, Ludwig; Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf; Sarmento Cabral, Juliano (2021). submitted.
  • Depth diversity gradients of macrophytes: shape, drivers and recent shifts Lewerentz, Anne; Hoffmann, Markus; Cabral, Juliano Sarmento in Ecology and Evolution (2021). 11 13830–13845.
  • Dealing with software complexity in individual-based models Vedder, Daniel; Ankenbrand, Markus; Cabral, Juliano in Methods in Ecology and Evolution (2021). 12 2324–2333.
  • Anthropogenic and environmental drivers shape diversity of non-native plants across the Pacific Wohlwend, Michael; Craven, Dylan; Weigelt, Patrick; Seebens, Hanno; Kreft, Holger; Winter, Marten; Zurell, Damaris; Cabral, Juliano Sarmento; Essl, Franz; van Kleunen, Mark; Pergl, Jan; Pysek, Petr; Knight, Tiffany in Diversity and Distributions (2021). 27 1120–1133.
  • Agent-based modeling of the effects of forest dynamics, selective logging, and fragment size on epiphyte communities Petter, Gunnar; Zotz, Gerhard; Kreft, Holger; Cabral, Juliano Sarmento in Ecology and Evolution (2021). (11) 2937–2951.
  • Accuracy of the pneumatic method for estimating xylem vulnerability to embolism in temperate diffuse-porous tree species Paligi, Sharath Shyamappa; Link, Roman M.; Isaza, Emilie; Bittencourt, Paulo; Cabral, Juliano Sarmento; Jansen, Steven; Oliveira, Rafael S; Pereira, Luciano; Schuldt, Bernhard in bioRxiv (2021).
2020[ to top ]
  • The effect of species extinctions on island biogeographic patterns Matthews, Tom; Leidinger, Ludwig; Cabral, Juliano in Ecological Research (2020). 35 372–381.
  • Modeling how community assembly alters the functioning of ecosystems Koffel, Thomas; Kremer, Colin T.; Bannar-Martin, Katherine; Ernest, S. K. Morgan; Eisenhauer, Nico; Roscher, Christiane; Cabral, Juliano Sarmento; Leibold, Mathew A. in bioRxiv (2020).
  • Mapping human pressures on biodiversity across the planet uncovers anthropogenic threat complexes Bowler, D. E.; Bjorkman, A.D.; Dornelas, M.; Myers-Smith, I.; O’Connor, M.; Navarro, L.M.; Niamir, A.; Supp, S.R.; Waldock, C.; Vellend, M.; Blowes, S.A.; Böhning-Gaese, K.; Bruelheide, H.; Elahi, R.; Antão, L.H.; Hines, J.; Isbell, F.; Jones, H.P.; Magurran, A.E.; Cabral, J.S.; Winter, M.; Bates, A.E. in People and Nature (2020). 2 380–394.
  • Macroecology in the age of big data – where to go from here? Wüest, Rafael O.; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Zurell, Damaris; Alexander, Jake; Fritz, Susanne A.; Hof, Christian; Kreft, Holger; Normand, Signe; Sarmento Cabral, Juliano; Szekely, Eniko; Thuiller, Wilfried; Wikelski, Martin; Karger, Dirk Nikolaus in Journal of Biogeography (2020). 47 1–12.
  • Integrating the underlying structure of stochasticity into community ecology Shoemaker, Lauren G.; Sullivan, Lauren L.; Donohue, Ian; Cabral, Juliano S.; Williams, Ryan J.; Mayfield, Margaret M.; Chase, Jonathan M.; Chu, Chengjin; Harpole, W. Stanley; Huth, Andreas; HilleRisLambers, Janneke; James, Aubrie R.M.; Kraft, Nathan J.B.; May, Felix; Muthukrishnan, Ranjan; Satterlee, Sean; Taubert, Franziska; Wang, Xugao; Wiegand, Thorsten; Yang, Qiang; Abbott, Karen C. in Ecology (2020). 101 e02922.
  • Disentangling the drivers of local species richness using probabilistic species pools Karger, Dirk Nikolaus; Wüest, Rafael; König, Christian; Cabral, Juliano; Weigelt, Patrick; Zimmermann, Nikaus; Linder, Peter in Journal of Biogeography (2020). (47) 879–889.
2019[ to top ]
  • Understanding extinction debts: spatio-temporal scales, mechanisms and a roadmap for future research Figueiredo, Ludmilla; Krauß, Jochen; Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf; Sarmento Cabral, Juliano in Ecography (2019). 42 1973–1990.
  • The latitudinal diversity gradient - novel understanding through mechanistic eco-evolutionary models Pontarp, Mikael; Bunnefeld, Lynsey; Cabral, Juliano Sarmento; Etienne, Rampal S.; Fritz, Susanne A.; Gillespie, Rosemary; Graham, Catherine H.; Hagen, Oskar; Hartig, Florian; Huang, Shan; Jansson, Roland; Maliet, Odile; Münkemüller, Tamara; Pellissier, Loïc; Rangel, Thiago F.; Storch, David; Wiegand, Thorsten; Hurlbert, Allen H. in Trends in Ecology & Evolution (2019). 34 211–223.
  • The dimensionality of stability depends on disturbance type Radchuk, Viktoriia; De Laender, Frederik; Sarmento Cabral, Juliano; Boulangeat, Isabelle; Crawford, Michael; Bohn, Friedrich; De Raedt, Jonathan; Scherer, Cedric; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Thonicke, Kirsten; Schurr, Frank; Grimm, Volker; Kramer-Schadt, Stephanie in Ecology Letters (2019). 22 674–684.
  • Species richness change across spatial scales Chase, Jonathan; McGill, Brian; Thompson, Patrick; Antao, Laura; Bates, Amanda; Blowes, Shane; Dornelas, Maria; Gonzalez, Andrew; Magurran, Anne; Supp, Sarah; Winter, Marten; Bjorkman, Anne; Bruelheide, Helge; Byrnes, Jarrett; Cabral, Juliano Sarmento; Elahi, Robin; Gomez, Catalina; Guzmán, Héctor; Isbell, Forest; Myers-Smith, Isla; Jones, Holly; Hines, Jessica; Vellend, Mark; Waldock, Conor; O’Connor, Mary in Oikos (2019).
  • Interactions between ecological, evolutionary, and environmental processes unveil complex dynamics of insular plant diversity Cabral, J.S.; Wiegand, K.; Kreft, H. in Journal of Biogeography (2019). 46 1582–1597.
  • Assessing predicted isolation effects from the general dynamic model of island biogeography with an eco-evolutionary model for plants Cabral, J.S.; Whittaker, R.J.; Wiegand, K.; Kreft, H. in Journal of Biogeography (2019). 46 1569–1581.
  • A minimal model for the latitudinal diversity gradient suggests a dominant role for ecological limits Etienne, Rampal S.; Cabral, Juliano S.; Hagen, Oskar; Hartig, Florian; Hurlbert, Allen H.; Pellissier, Loïc; Pontarp, Mikael; Storch, David in The American Naturalist (2019). (194) E122-E133.
2018[ to top ]
  • Spatial scaling of extinction rates: theory and data reveal non-linearity, and a major upscaling and downscaling challenge Keil, P.; Pereira, H.M.; Cabral, J.S.; Chase, J.; May, F.; Martins, I.S.; Winter, M. in Global Ecology and Biogeography (2018). 27 2–13.
  • Integrating community assembly and biodiversity reveals new dimensions of ecosystem functions: the Community Assembly and the Functioning of Ecosystems (CAFE) approach Bannar-Martin, Katherine; Kremer, Colin; Ernest, Morgan; Leibold, Mathew; Auge, Harald; Chase, Jonathan; Declerck, Steven; Eisenhauer, Nico; Harpole, Stanley; Hillebrand, Helmut; Isbell, Forest; Koffel, Thomas; Larsen, Stefano; Narwani, Anita; Petermann, Jana; Roscher, Christiane; Sarmento Cabral, Juliano; Supp, Sarah in Ecology Letters (2018). 21 167–180.
2017[ to top ]
  • Oceanic island biogeography through the lens of the general dynamic model: assessment and prospect Borregaard, Michael K.; Amorim, Isabel R.; Borges, Paulo A. V.; Cabral, Juliano S.; Fernández-Palacios, José M.; Field, Richard; Heaney, Lawrence R.; Kreft, Holger; Matthews, Thomas J.; Olesen, Jens M.; Price, Jonathan; Rigal, Francois; Steinbauer, Manuel J.; Triantis, Konstantinos A.; Valente, Luis; Weigelt, Patrick; Whittaker, Robert J. in Biological Reviews (2017). 92 830–853.
  • Mechanistic models in macroecology and biogeography: state-of-art and prospects Cabral, Juliano Sarmento; Valente, Luis; Hartig, Florian in Ecography (2017). 40(267-280)
  • Karyotype diversity and genome size variation in Neotropical Maxillariinae orchids Moraes, A.; de Mesquita Filho, J.; Koehler, S.; Cabral, J.; Lopes Gomes, S.; Viccini, L.; Barros, F.; Felix, L.; Guerra, M.; Forni-Martins, E. in Plant Biology (2017). 19 298–308.
  • Interactions between ecological, evolutionary, and environmental processes unveil complex dynamics of island biodiversity Cabral, J.S.; Wiegand, K.; Kreft, H. in bioRxiv (2017). (099978)
  • Flagship umbrella species needed for conservation of overlooked biodiversity Kalinkat, G.; Cabral, J.S.; Darwall, W.; Ficetola, F.; Fisher, J.; Giling, D.; Gosselin, M.-P.; Grossart, H.-P.; Jähnig, S.; Jeschke, J.; Knopf, K.; Larsen, S.; Onandia, G.; Pätzig, M.; Saul, W.-C.; Singer, G.; Jarić, I. in Conservation Biology (2017). 31 481–485.
  • Effects of time and isolation on plant diversity: testing island biogeography theory with an eco-evolutionary model Cabral, J.S.; Whittaker, R.J.; Wiegand, K.; Kreft, H. in bioRxiv (2017). (100289)
  • Biodiversity dynamics on islands: explicitly accounting for causality in mechanistic models Leidinger, Ludwig; Cabral, Juliano Sarmento in Diversity (2017). 9(3)
2016[ to top ]
  • Late Quaternary climate change shapes island biodiversity Weigelt, Patrick; Steinbauer, Manuel Jonas; Cabral, Juliano Sarmento; Kreft, Holger in Nature (2016). 532(7597) 99–102.
  • Functional leaf traits of vascular epiphytes: vertical trends within the forest, intra- and interspecific trait variability, and taxonomic signals Petter, G.; Wagner, K.; Wanek, W.; Sánchez Delgado, E.J.; Zotz, G.; Cabral, J.S.; Kreft, H. in Functional Ecology (2016). 30 188–198.
  • Delineating probabilistic species pools in ecology and biogeography Karger, D.N.; Cord, A.; Kessler, M.; Kreft, H.; Kühn, I.; Pompe, S.; Sandel, B.; Sarmento Cabral, J.; Smith, A.; Svenning, J.-C.; Tuomisto, H.; Weigelt, P.; Wesche, K. in Global Ecology and Biogeography (2016). 25 489–501.
  • Benchmarking novel approaches for modelling species range dynamics Zurell, Damaris; Thuiller, Wilfried; Pagel, Jörn; Cabral, Juliano S.; Münkemüller, Tamara; Gravel, Dominique; Dullinger, Stefan; Normand, Signe; Schiffers, Katja H.; Moore, Kara A.; Zimmermann, Niklaus E. in Global Change Biology (2016). 22(8) 2651–2664.
2015[ to top ]
  • Chromosomal evolution in Pleurothallidinae (Orchidaceae: Epidendroideae) with emphasis on the genus Acianthera: chromosome numbers and heterochromatin de Oliveira, I.G.; Moraes, A.P.; de Almeida, E.M.; de Assis, F.N.M.; Cabral, J.S.; de Barros, F.; Felix, L.F. in Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society (2015). 178 102–120.
  • Branchfall as a demographic filter for epiphyte communities: Lessons from a forest floor-based sampling Cabral, J.S.; Petter, G.; Mendieta-Leiva, G.; Wagner, K.; Zotz, G.; Kreft, H. in PloS one (2015). 10 e0128019.
2014[ to top ]
  • Biogeographic, climatic and spatial drivers differentially affect α-, β- and γ-diversities on oceanic archipelagos Cabral, Juliano Sarmento; Weigelt, Patrick; Kissling, W. Daniel; Kreft, Holger in Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B: Biological Sciences (2014). 281(1784)
2013[ to top ]
  • Process, correlation and parameter fitting in species distribution models: a response to Kriticos et al. 2012 Schymanski, S.J.; Dormann, C.F.; Cabral, J.; Chuine, I.; Graham, C.; Hartig, F.; Kearney, M.; Morin, X.; Römermann, C.; Schröder, B.; Singer, A. in Journal of Biogeography (2013). 40 611–613.
  • Impacts of past habitat loss and future climate change on the range dynamics of South African Proteaceae Sarmento Cabral, Juliano; Jeltsch, Florian; Thuiller, Wilfried; Higgins, Steven; Midgley, Guy F.; Rebelo, Anthony G.; Rouget, Mathieu; Schurr, Frank M. in Diversity and Distributions (2013). 19(4) 363–376.
2012[ to top ]
  • Linking ecological niche, community ecology and biogeography: insights from a mechanistic niche model Cabral, Juliano Sarmento; Kreft, Holger in Journal of Biogeography (2012). 39(12) 2212–2224.
  • How to understand species’ niches and range dynamics: a demographic research agenda for biogeography Schurr, Frank M.; Pagel, Jörn; Cabral, Juliano Sarmento; Groeneveld, Jürgen; Bykova, Olga; O’Hara, Robert B.; Hartig, Florian; Kissling, W. Daniel; Linder, H. Peter; Midgley, Guy F.; Schröder, Boris; Singer, Alexander; Zimmermann, Niklaus E. in Journal of Biogeography (2012). 39(12) 2146–2162.
  • Correlation and process in species distribution models: bridging a dichotomy Dormann, Carsten F.; Schymanski, Stanislaus J.; Cabral, Juliano; Chuine, Isabelle; Graham, Catherine; Hartig, Florian; Kearney, Michael; Morin, Xavier; Römermann, Christine; Schröder, Boris; Singer, Alexander in Journal of Biogeography (2012). 39(12) 2119–2131.
2011[ to top ]
  • Effects of Harvesting Flowers from Shrubs on the Persistence and Abundance of Wild Shrub Populations at Multiple Spatial Extents Cabral, Juliano Sarmento; Bond, William J.; Midgley, Guy F.; Rebelo, Anthony G.; Thuiller, Wilfried; Schurr, Frank M. in Conservation Biology (2011). 25(1) 73–84.
2010[ to top ]
  • The virtual ecologist approach: simulating data and observers Zurell, Damaris; Berger, Uta; Cabral, Juliano S.; Jeltsch, Florian; Meynard, Christine N.; Münkemüller, Tamara; Nehrbass, Nana; Pagel, Jörn; Reineking, Björn; Schröder, Boris; Grimm, Volker in Oikos (2010). 119(4) 622–635.
  • Keeping the Cape Lowland archipelago afloat Krug, C.B.; Brandl, R.; Boonzaier, C.; Cabral, J.S.; Esler, K.J.; Grant, P.B.C.; Heelemann, S.; Horn, A.; Keil, M.; Kongor, R.Y.; Meyer, J.; Nottebrock, H.; Poschlod, P.; Reisch, C.; Rösner, S.; Samways, M. J.; Schurr, F.; Vrdoljak, S. (2010). (Vol. Biodiversity in southern Africa. Volume 3: Implications for landuse and management) 151–179.
  • Estimating demographic models for the range dynamics of plant species Cabral, Juliano S.; Schurr, Frank M. in Global Ecology and Biogeography (2010). 19(1) 85–97.
2008[ to top ]
  • Molecular phylogeny of the neotropical genus Christensonella (Orchidaceae, Maxillariinae): species delimitations and insights into chromosome evolution Koehler, S.; Cabral, J.S.; Whiten, W.M.; Williams, N.H.; Singer, R.B.; Neubig, K.M.; Guerra, M.; Souza, A.P.; Amaral, M.C.E. in Annals of Botany (2008). 102(491-507)
2006[ to top ]
  • {Heterochromatin diversity and its co-localization with 5S and 45S rDNA sites in chromosomes of four Maxillaria species (Orchidaceae)} Cabral, Juliano S.; Felix, Leonardo P.; Guerra, Marcelo in {Genetics and Molecular Biology} (2006). 29 659–664.
  • Atlantic forest fragments in Pernambuco and Alagoas and theirs bromeliads: distribution, composition, richness and conservation Siqueira-Filho, J.A.; Santos, A.M.M.; Leme, E.M.C.; Cabral, J.S. (2006). (Vol. Fragments of the Atlantic Forest of Northeast Brazil: Biodiversity, Conservation and the Bromeliads) 101–131.
2003[ to top ]
  • Dieta de coruja murucututu (Pulsatrix perspicillata perspicillata Lathan, 1790) no Campus de UFRPE, Recife, PE Cabral, J.S.; de Vasconcelos, S.L.; Rodrigues, M.F.; Pontual, R.M.; Mascarenhas, L.L. in VI Congresso de Ecologia do Brasil (2003). (Vol. Volume III) 273–274.