Center for Computational and Theoretical Biology

Biodiversity tipping points in climate and land use change


This is project within the BLIZ consortium, a Bayklif initiative.

Climate change already has dramatic impacts on species and communities of species. So far, however, models have often only been used to investigate anthropogenic influences on individual species or on hypothetical communities of species. Therefore, it remains unexplored how climate change affects species communities in natural systems – both terrestrial and aquatic. The diversity and complexity of Bavarian landscapes is particularly suitable for researching how biodiversity reacts to climate and land use change.

In order to understand the potential effects of these interacting factors, the subproject investigates how aquatic and terrestrial species communities in Bavarian lakes and landscapes react to various changes in environmental factors. Spatially explicit niche and agent-based models for interacting plant and animal communities are being developed for this purpose. The simulated interactions between all relevant ecological processes result in the distribution and occurrence of plant and animal species within spatially structured communities. From the model results, biodiversity hotspots relevant to conservation are derived throughout Bavaria and displayed on maps.

For further information, please visit the official site of the project here.


2022[ to top ]
  • Sarmento Cabral, J., Mendoza-Ponce, A., da Silva, A. P., Oberpriller, J., Mimet, A., Kieslinger, J., Berger, T., Blechschmidt, J., Brönner, M., Classen, A., Fallert, S., Hartig, F., Hof, C., Hoffmann, M., Knoke, T., Krause, A., Lewerentz, A., Pohle, P., Raeder, U., Rammig, A., Redlich, S., Rubanschi, S., Stetter, C., Weisser, W., Vedder, D., Verburg, P. H., & Zurell, D. The road to integrate climate change effects on land-use change in regional biodiversity models. Authorea, Preprint. https://doi.org/10.22541/au.164608831.19029067/v1
  • Lewerentz, A., Hoffmann, M., Hovestadt, T., Raeder, U., & Sarmento Cabral, J. Potential change in the future spatial distribution of submerged macrophyte species and species richness: the role of today’s lake type and strength of compounded environmental change. Preprint.
2021[ to top ]
  • Lewerentz, A., & Cabral, J. S. Wasserpflanzen in Bayern. Der Blick auf den See verrät nicht, was unter der Oberfläche passiert. Mitteilungen Der Fränkischen Geographischen Gesellschaft, 67, 19-28. http://fgg-erlangen.de/fgg/ojs/index.php/mfgg/article/view/585
  • Lewerentz, A., Hoffmann, M., & Cabral, J. S. Depth diversity gradients of macrophytes: Shape, drivers, and recent shifts. Ecology and Evolution, 11(20), 13830-13845. https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.8089
  • Lewerentz, A., Hoffmann, M., & Cabral, J. S. Depth diversity gradients of macrophytes: shape, drivers and recent shifts. Ecology and Evolution, 11, 13830-13845.
  • Vedder, D., Ankenbrand, M., & Cabral, J. Dealing with software complexity in individual-based models. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 12, 2324-2333. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.13716
  • Lewerentz, A., Schantz, D., Gröh, J., Knote, A., Mammen, S. von, & Cabral, J. S. bioDIVERsity. Ein Computerspiel gegen das Imageproblem von Wasserpflanzen. Mitteilungen Der Fränkischen Geographischen Gesellschaft, 67, 29-36. http://fgg-erlangen.de/fgg/ojs/index.php/mfgg/article/view/586